12  Time to Steady State

12.1 What is time to steady state?

Time to steady state (TSS) is the dosing occasion (or clock time) at which pre-dose trough concentrations are no longer meaningfully rising. PKNCA provides two NCA-based methods for estimating TSS from trough concentration data collected across multiple dose occasions.

Both methods work on trough concentrations (Ctrough = pre-dose concentration) collected at successive dose numbers, not full PK profiles.


12.2 Simulated dataset

We simulate trough concentrations for 6 subjects across 10 dose occasions. Concentrations approach an individual steady-state plateau following a monoexponential rise.

set.seed(42)
n_subjects <- 6
n_doses    <- 10

d_tss <- data.frame(
  Subject     = rep(1:n_subjects, each = n_doses),
  dose_number = rep(1:n_doses, n_subjects),
  ke          = rep(0.1 * exp(rnorm(n_subjects, 0, 0.2)), each = n_doses),
  Css         = rep(10  * exp(rnorm(n_subjects, 0, 0.3)), each = n_doses)
)
d_tss$ctrough <- d_tss$Css * (1 - exp(-d_tss$ke * d_tss$dose_number * 24)) +
                 rnorm(nrow(d_tss), 0, 0.1)

ggplot(d_tss, aes(x = dose_number, y = ctrough, group = Subject, colour = factor(Subject))) +
  geom_line() + geom_point() +
  labs(title = "Simulated trough concentrations across dose occasions",
       x = "Dose number", y = "Ctrough (mg/L)", colour = "Subject") +
  theme_minimal()


12.3 Method 1: Monoexponential (pk.tss.monoexponential)

Fits a monoexponential approach-to-plateau model:

\[C_{\text{trough}}(n) = C_{ss} \cdot \left(1 - e^{-k_{\text{tss}} \cdot n}\right)\]

Reports TSS as the dose occasion at which the predicted concentration reaches a specified fraction of Css (default: 90% = tss.fraction = 0.9).

Returns population, population-individual (popind), individual, and single-subject estimates.

tss_mono <- pk.tss.monoexponential(
  conc        = d_tss$ctrough,
  time        = d_tss$dose_number,
  subject     = d_tss$Subject,
  time.dosing = 1:n_doses
)
Warning in nlme.formula(conc ~ ctrough.ss * (1 - exp(tss.constant * time/tss)),
: Iteration 1, LME step: nlminb() did not converge (code = 1). Do increase
'msMaxIter'!
Warning in pk.tss.monoexponential.population(modeldata, output =
intersect(c("population", : tss.monoexponential.popind was requested, but the
best model did not include a random effect for tss.  Set to NA.
tss_mono
  subject tss.monoexponential.population tss.monoexponential.popind
1       1                      0.8797774                         NA
2       2                      0.8797774                         NA
3       3                      0.8797774                         NA
4       4                      0.8797774                         NA
5       5                      0.8797774                         NA
6       6                      0.8797774                         NA
  tss.monoexponential.individual tss.monoexponential.single
1                      0.7536625                  0.8806135
2                      1.0731366                  0.8806135
3                      0.8498045                  0.8806135
4                      0.8060571                  0.8806135
5                      0.8277943                  0.8806135
6                      0.9719632                  0.8806135

Interpreting the output columns:

Column Meaning
tss.monoexponential.population TSS from population-level fit (one value shared across subjects)
tss.monoexponential.popind TSS from mixed model with subject-level random effect for TSS (NA if not supported by data)
tss.monoexponential.individual TSS from individual-level fits
tss.monoexponential.single TSS ignoring between-subject variability

12.3.1 Changing the fraction threshold

# 95% of Css
pk.tss.monoexponential(
  conc        = d_tss$ctrough,
  time        = d_tss$dose_number,
  subject     = d_tss$Subject,
  time.dosing = 1:n_doses,
  tss.fraction = 0.95
)
Warning in nlme.formula(conc ~ ctrough.ss * (1 - exp(tss.constant * time/tss)),
: Iteration 1, LME step: nlminb() did not converge (code = 1). Do increase
'msMaxIter'!
Warning in nlme.formula(conc ~ ctrough.ss * (1 - exp(tss.constant * time/tss)),
: Singular precision matrix in level -1, block 1
Warning in pk.tss.monoexponential.population(modeldata, output =
intersect(c("population", : tss.monoexponential.popind was requested, but the
best model did not include a random effect for tss.  Set to NA.
  subject tss.monoexponential.population tss.monoexponential.popind
1       1                       1.144617                         NA
2       2                       1.144617                         NA
3       3                       1.144617                         NA
4       4                       1.144617                         NA
5       5                       1.144617                         NA
6       6                       1.144617                         NA
  tss.monoexponential.individual tss.monoexponential.single
1                      0.9805283                   1.145705
2                      1.3961661                   1.145705
3                      1.1056088                   1.145705
4                      1.0486509                   1.145705
5                      1.0769848                   1.145705
6                      1.2645547                   1.145705

12.4 Method 2: Stepwise linear (pk.tss.stepwise.linear)

A non-parametric approach: iteratively tests whether concentrations are still increasing linearly from dose occasion \(k\) onward. TSS is the earliest dose occasion at which the upward trend is no longer statistically significant.

This method is more robust when the rise to steady state is irregular or non-monoexponential.

tss_linear <- pk.tss.stepwise.linear(
  conc        = d_tss$ctrough,
  time        = d_tss$dose_number,
  subject     = d_tss$Subject,
  time.dosing = 1:n_doses
)

tss_linear
  tss.stepwise.linear
1                   2

The result is a data frame with a tss.stepwise.linear column containing the first dose occasion number where concentrations are deemed flat (or NA if steady state cannot be determined from the data).


12.5 Combined method (pk.tss)

pk.tss() runs both methods and returns results side by side:

tss_combined <- pk.tss(
  conc        = d_tss$ctrough,
  time        = d_tss$dose_number,
  subject     = d_tss$Subject,
  time.dosing = 1:n_doses
)
Warning in nlme.formula(conc ~ ctrough.ss * (1 - exp(tss.constant * time/tss)),
: Iteration 1, LME step: nlminb() did not converge (code = 1). Do increase
'msMaxIter'!
Warning in pk.tss.monoexponential.population(modeldata, output =
intersect(c("population", : tss.monoexponential.popind was requested, but the
best model did not include a random effect for tss.  Set to NA.
tss_combined
  subject tss.monoexponential.population tss.monoexponential.popind
1       1                      0.8797774                         NA
2       2                      0.8797774                         NA
3       3                      0.8797774                         NA
4       4                      0.8797774                         NA
5       5                      0.8797774                         NA
6       6                      0.8797774                         NA
  tss.monoexponential.individual tss.monoexponential.single tss.stepwise.linear
1                      0.7536625                  0.8806135                   2
2                      1.0731366                  0.8806135                   2
3                      0.8498045                  0.8806135                   2
4                      0.8060571                  0.8806135                   2
5                      0.8277943                  0.8806135                   2
6                      0.9719632                  0.8806135                   2

12.6 Key arguments

Argument Default Meaning
conc Trough concentrations (one per dose occasion per subject)
time Dose occasion numbers or actual clock times
subject Subject identifiers
time.dosing All possible dosing occasions in the study (needed to define the full grid)
tss.fraction 0.9 Fraction of Css that defines “at steady state” (monoexponential method)
output c("population","popind","individual","single") Which output types to return
verbose FALSE Print model fitting details

Note: TSS estimation requires multiple dose occasions with consistent trough sampling. It is not applicable to single-dose studies or studies where trough collection was inconsistent.